![]() ![]() There will be a modest atmospheric river associated with this incoming storm system, and there could be some decent orographic enhancement of precipitation (especially in Southern California). High-resolution NAM forecast is depicting widespread precipitation associated with the Wednesday system. That said, strong West Coast ridging during what is statistically one of California’s wettest months is not really what drought-weary Californians want to see, and also not quite what we might have expected during what remains one of the largest El Niño events on record in the Pacific basin. So we still have a way to go before it would be reasonable to start talking about the return of the Triple R. ![]() Mid-winter dry spells lasting multiple weeks are not at all uncommon in California–in fact, they are arguably a characteristic feature of our “feast or famine” rainy season. One critically important difference is that this ridge has not yet been nearly as “resilient” as those during recent winters. ![]() This pattern may sound familiar to regular readers: it’s similar to the setup brought about by the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, which set up shop over the far northeastern Pacific during recent California drought years and continued for many months at a stretch. This setup is a bit different than that which brought dry weather to Southern California but wet conditions to Northern California earlier this winter–since the more recent one has essentially re-directed the jet stream (and subsequently the storm track) well to the north of the state. The proximal cause of this record warmth and widespread mid-winter dry spell is (perhaps unsurprisingly) the development of a strong high pressure system roughly aligned with the West Coast of North America. Even in the Bay Area and Central Valley, temperatures have reached 80 degrees during the height of winter. The heat in Southern California has been truly sweltering: recent daily maximum temperatures exceeding 90F in the Los Angeles area have actually exceeded average summer temperatures on multiple occasions. Almost no precipitation of significance has fallen in California since the start of the calendar month, and record high temperatures have been set nearly every day in at least a few locations. (NCEP via ESRL)įebruary has thus far felt a lot more like July across a wide swath of California. While a deep Gulf of Alaska low has persisted since January, increasingly persistent ridging has been present along the West Coast. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |